ASEAN NETWORK NEWS| Iran is facing growing pressure over gasoline supplies as domestic consumption continues to exceed refinery production. One of the options being considered by the government could involve selling fuel above existing subsidized quotas at prices equivalent to the cost of production or imports, potentially reaching around Rp11,000 per liter.
However, the proposed figure does not represent a nationwide fuel price that has already been officially implemented. Iranian authorities are still evaluating several options, including fuel rationing and changes to the subsidy system.
Iran's gasoline supply has come under increasing pressure as domestic demand outpaces production. According to reports cited in the source article, gasoline consumption has reached approximately 135 million liters per day, while refinery output is around 112 million liters per day.
An additional supply of roughly 9 million liters per day is reportedly obtained by processing petrochemical products into gasoline. Even with this additional production, Iran faces a daily shortfall of approximately 14–15 million liters.
The supply gap has raised concerns over the sustainability of Iran's long-standing fuel subsidy system, particularly as the country faces economic and logistical pressures.
Iranian authorities are reportedly considering three main options to address the gasoline shortage.
The first option is to maintain current fuel prices while limiting the amount of gasoline supplied to individual filling stations. Under such a system, stations could stop selling fuel once their allocated supply has been exhausted.
The second option would maintain existing fuel quotas but charge a higher price for gasoline purchased beyond the subsidized quota. This would allow the government to preserve subsidized fuel for basic consumption while reducing the cost of additional fuel supplies.
The third option would shift the subsidy mechanism from vehicles to individuals. Under this system, people could receive fuel allocations regardless of whether they own a vehicle, potentially allowing unused allocations to be transferred or traded.
Iranian officials have indicated that the government is still assessing these alternatives. No final decision on a nationwide gasoline price increase has been confirmed.
One of the most sensitive proposals involves selling gasoline at a price closer to its production or import cost. Reports have cited a potential price of approximately 872,000 Iranian rials per liter under such a mechanism.
Converted into Indonesian rupiah, the amount is roughly equivalent to Rp11,000 per liter, although the exact value depends on the exchange rate used.
The figure should therefore be understood as an estimate based on one of the proposed pricing scenarios rather than an officially established national gasoline price.
Iran has also reportedly tested higher gasoline prices in certain areas. A proposed price of 872,000 rials per liter for fuel outside the regular quota in Kerman Province was reportedly halted shortly before implementation.
Fuel prices remain a politically sensitive issue in Iran because gasoline has historically been heavily subsidized. Raising prices could help reduce government spending and discourage excessive consumption, but it could also increase transportation and logistics costs.
Higher transportation costs could subsequently affect the prices of goods and services, creating additional inflationary pressure for households.
The government must therefore balance the need to secure gasoline supplies with concerns over household purchasing power and social stability.
Iran experienced widespread protests after a major gasoline price increase in 2019. That experience remains an important consideration for policymakers when discussing further fuel-price adjustments.
Despite reports about possible higher gasoline prices, Iranian authorities have not officially confirmed a nationwide increase to the equivalent of Rp11,000 per liter.
Officials have previously stated that no immediate decision had been made to raise gasoline prices or fundamentally change the existing rationing system.
Therefore, reports concerning the potential Rp11,000-per-liter price should be viewed as part of the government's ongoing policy discussions rather than as an announcement of a new national fuel price.
Iran is facing a growing gasoline supply challenge as domestic consumption remains significantly higher than refinery production. The government is considering several measures, including tighter fuel quotas, higher prices for gasoline purchased beyond subsidized allocations, and changes to the subsidy mechanism.
The potential price of around Rp11,000 per liter represents one of the scenarios being discussed and is not yet a confirmed nationwide price. The final policy will depend on the Iranian government's assessment of fuel availability, fiscal pressure, inflation risks and potential social consequences.
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